Saturday, January 20, 2007


The West seems to have set the stage about how global conflicts find a foundation. The primary element for a foundation to global conflict is to construct an alliance of reliable nations. These reliable nations may have many differing cultural formations yet the glue that commits the alliance is a co-mutual National Interest.

If one connects the dots, an emerging such alliance is Russia, China and Iran. All three of these nations have very divergent cultures that have materialized to this present date in time. At first glance the appearance is that these three nations would be enemies rather than friends. There even has been recent history that all three of these nations have had recent conflict with one another.

There is one global element that unites the trio into a commonality. It is the United States of America. Russia, China and Iran want to be at the very least a regional hegemon in their traditional spheres of influence. The USA’s global hegemonic reach is a stumbling block for each of the trio’s regional National Interest.

Russia since Czarist days has sought an expansionism that produces a comfort zone from invasion. China has been East Asia’s anchor of power on a continuous basis maybe longer than any other group of people (with one sort of dynasty or another to the present day Communist regime). The trio has gravitated to each other because of mutual interests. Iran has oil and China needs oil and Russia ironically needs refined oil. I say “ironically” about Russia because they have loads of there own oil but apparently have difficulty in accessing it.

Russian and China both have technology and military know how. Iran wishes to access that know how.

Thus mutual National Interests and mutual needs may (if not already) cement a new Axis to confront American National Interests.

The variable to the new Axis are a couple of other Asian big dogs: economic giant Japan and emerging economic giant (and nuclear power) India. India and Japan are extreme rivals to China. The world’s largest democracy – India – has been in the old Soviet Communist orbit in the past; however India has made significant strides to ally with America. Japan ironically has been America’s best friend in Asia since the end of WWII. Japan has never been on friendly terms with Czarist Russia or Communist USSR.

A couple of minor variables in East Asia and the Pacific that would gravitate toward America are Australia, Philippines, South Korea and the controversial Taiwan.

Notice I have excluded Europe. I suspect Western Europe would only join America if they sensed an extreme threat from the Axis Trio. Although much of Eastern Europe would wish to be pro-American, they are too close to Russian hegemonic desires to be an effective aid in any thing except maybe a guerrilla war. Much of Canada is in the European frame of mind politically; however I suspect Canadian political polarization would emerge on the side of America in a pinch. However I think Canada might be extremely hesitant to commit to its old friend America without some kind of tragedy on their soil such as the Mohammedan conspiracy that was broken up a short time ago. That conspiracy was aimed at the Canadian Parliament and Prime Minister.

So here I present the global stage for what I believe the inevitable future. Russia, China and Iran will undoubtedly have their minor variables to add to their interests. There is psycho North Korea. There is the Shi’ites of Iraq. I suspect al Qaeda will join Shi’ite Iran even though al Qaeda are Wahhabi Sunni psycho Mohammedans. There is Syria. There is Hezbollah of Lebanon. I suspect al Qaeda and Hamas terrorism will influence other Mohammedan nations to join the Trio Axis. It is at this moment in which Western Europe will decide if the Axis or American hegemony will best support their regional interests. That decision will be based on oil. Will the EU fight with America to gain oil from a capitalistic market or will the EU join the Axis with guarantees of oil?

In the midst of this global conflict, I suspect a holocaust of Jews in Israel will occur. The little sliver of land known as Israel may be out of reach of American protection if the conflict goes global. This is much like the Philippines was out of reach of American protection at the outset of WWII with Japan. Hopefully there will be a 21st century MacArthur that will “return” to liberate Israel before too many Jews are massacred. (Theologically speaking that MacArthur might be Jesus Christ himself.)

Again global conflict is inevitable. Ideology and regional self-interest are simply to compelling for diplomatic patience to be effective. Russia, China and Iran are already having tentacles into each other; it would be difficult to do the Siamese surgery to untangle the triplets.

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