Friday, July 14, 2006
Ties That Bind North Korea and China
North Korea has one friend: Communist China. Until China does something to change the direction of North Korea, events may unfold that are counter to Chinese national interests. At the very least events may unfold that China is not yet prepared (on their terms anyway) to deal with.
America might agressively confront North Korea by precision military incursions. If America were to react or act, the national pride of Communist China may come into play. BOOM! The beginning of another Korean War. That is something that neither China or America wants to deal with.
Another occurrence that would be counter to Chinese national interests relates to Japan. Japan is getting fed up with the antics of near by North Korea. I am certain Japan considers North Korea an upstart pip squeak of an annoying nation (which the Japanese once viciously ruled). Kim Jung Il's testing of missiles that might be armed in the future with nuke WMD over and near Japan is an unacceptable practice. Japan has national interests as well, a psycho nuclear neighbor is not in Japan's best interests. Japan will adjust their thinking to protect themselves. POOF! Japan will re-militarize into a formidable armed nation.
China definitely will look well on this toward their national interests. America might enjoy the stablizing affect of an armed Japan initially, but will always remember WWII in the back of their mind.
Right now it is all about timing with Asian nations. If China can move North Korea to de-necluarize, then that will enhance the future of China's National Interests. China is a looming Super Power. North Korea's antics might derail that goal via global conflict if China supports North Korea under Western or American attack. It will all be about timing in the end and the key will be China.
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