Sunday, May 24, 2009

A Middle East War Looming?

Here is some information from one of the top dogs in Conspiracy news – Prison Planet. The news article is entitled, “As Israel rages, US plans for Iran war re-emerge.”

Now I enjoy reading Conspiracy news however this kind of news is often derived from hear-say sources. Thus the reliability may be questionable because the truth is either stretched or if the news is on track with the source, confirmation is difficult to impossible to establish. News from coming Conspiracy news sources either look brilliant with the “I told you so” or the News appears laughable if it defies logic or tends to turn out just plain wrong.

This Prison Planet story has Prime Minister Netanyahu informing President Obama that Israel will go it alone to attack Iran if need be. The reality is such a desperate attempt at self-preservation would be at best a suicide mission if it succeeded.

The conclusion of Prison Planet is that if Israel goes it alone a Middle East war would emerge (that very well could expand into a World War); thus Obama chooses to prepare for war with the emerging enemies.

Neither Prison Planet nor I could divide decisively who those enemies would be except for the certainty of Iran. Because Hamas and Hezbollah line up with Iran such a war would divide the loyalties of the region. My guess is the Saudi leadership will have to decide to join the USA and Israel against Iran. Not because Saudi Arabia loves either nation but because Wahhabis hate Iranian Shi’ites. It is doubtful that the Wahhabi Saudis could stomach being on an equal to subservient plain with Iran.

Then there is Iraq. Such a war would surely line-up the Iraqi Sunni and Kurds against the Iraqi Shi’ites thus at the very least splitting the nation in two or at the worst into three hostile nations of a former Iraq.

Turkey would probably join the USA and Israel against Iran but not with gusto. There seems to be an unreasonable Turkish hatred toward the current largest national group without a sovereign nation – the Kurds.

Syria would join Iran out of existential need. Yet remember Syria is ruled by the minority Alawite-Shi’ites over the majority Syrian Sunnis. I suspect Lebanon would totally cease to exist as it is turn to pieces between American, Israeli and Turkish militaries on one side and Hezbollah, Syrian and rogue Iranian National Guard on the other end. Lebanon’s existence would be decided by the victors at the end of the regional conflict.

Then there are the wild card nations of Egypt and Jordan. Both of those nation’s citizens have a HUGE amount of sympathy for the Arabs who designate themselves as Palestinians. The first sympathies of the rulers of those two nations would be to counter the hated Iranian hegemonic plans for the Middle East; however Mohammedan riots no doubt urged by the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) could mess up the governments of Egypt and Jordan neutralizing actual partnership with the USA to stay in power at their homes.

The current Afghan government would turn into a total puppet of the USA as the Taliban sympathetic populace will probably take up with the Islamic Terrorists stretching between both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Pakistan may disintegrate as a so-called secular Republic as the radical Islamic terrorists who have the hearts of both Afghanistan and Pakistan overrun Pakistan from one side as the current military looks over their back to see what action India will take expecting the worst.

Then comes the globalized part of any Middle East conflict. Russian and China by necessity will have to choose sides. At first glance those two nations may feel it is in their National Interest to go with Iran initially. On the other hand I can see a scenario that China and India join the USA against Iran out of (ironically) Capitalist market issues. Although China needs Middle Eastern oil, they are totally invested in American markets in which the USA owes the Red Chinese some dough.

China and Russia have put on a unified front militarily lately however I sense China would throw Russia under a bus in a heart beat if they thought the best chance to remain a powerful emerging wealth nation was to hook-up with America.

If China switched to support America in a Middle East war, Russia may bow out due to self-preservation. Or there is the uncertainty of the re-emergence of Russian hubris may cause the Russian government to go for broke by supporting Iran. It would not be the first time in Russian history that Russia appeared to be down for the count only to bounce back a victor. There is Russia versus Napoleon and Russia versus Hitler as examples.

I really don’t have a good guess about Russian in a Middle East conflict. As a Bible student I would guess Russia would join Iran and Syria merely because most Protestant Biblical prophetic based ministries expect Russia to come from the North to threaten Israel’s existence. If this turns out to be that prophetic time, when things look dire the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob will step in on Israel’s behalf at the last moment to render a decisive victory for Israel.

If it is not that prophetic moment, then look toward traditional geopolitical maneuvering to line up the sides as the cards are slowly drawn for play.

At any rate Prison Planet views President Obama to have contingency plans ready to battle Iran.

JRH 5/24/09

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