Too Many Factions for Pakistan to be Trusted Ally

Here is some fascinating speculation on the future of Pakistan as written by Kathy Shaidle.

The news piece predicts that Pakistan will essentially implode due to the disparate interests of ruling elites.

It runs something like this: There are the traditional Pakistan elites descending from the British created Pakistan of 1947 which is a tender balance between Pakistani mullahs and the power of the military. Added to this now is the retro-radical Sharia Law espoused by the influence of the Taliban.

As the years have gone by since 1947 Independence, apparently the radical Islam of the northwest portions of Pakistan have closely akin to the radical Islam of Afghanistan which is known to us today as the Taliban.

Apparently Pakistan’s new President Zardari has signed a temporary truce with Taliban elements in Pakistan. The bargain: The Pakistan government will not interfere with the implementation of Taliban retro-radical Sharia Law in exchange with for the Taliban to not execute paramilitary Islamic terrorism in the government controlled portion of Pakistan.

Shaidle’s article reports that Salim Mansur of the Center for Security Policy in Washington, DC believes that Pakistan is on a path of dissolving. I am guessing that means Pakistan will divide into one or more nations.

I did find it interesting is this discussion of a Pakistan implosion that Shaidle did not mention Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The ISI is nearly a rogue agency within the Pakistani government that has at times served the civilian government and at times served the Pakistan military. This clandestine State spy agency appears to have a different agenda than that hoped for from an American ally which the USA considers Pakistan. The ISI is deeply involved in aiding radical Islamic terrorists pointed at India, Afghanistan and radical Islamic elements within Pakistan itself. This would make the ISI an enemy of the USA within the Pakistan government. This also points to a further disintegration of Pakistan in which may lead to the Pakistani government becoming an Islamic Sunni Revolutionary State comparable to the Shi’ite Revolutionary State in Iran.

I am guessing the ISI may have a clandestine agenda to get the Pakistan military on board to an Islamic State that will either unify Pakistanis under a rigid Islam if successful or the ISI working for two emerging Pakistani governments: a Palestinian military dictatorship sympathetic to Islamic terrorists and an Islamic terrorist State controlled by the Taliban or one of many Taliban-like Islamic terrorists. Since there are number of radical Islamic terrorists that are more native to Pakistan, there is also a chance that a break-away portion of Pakistan might be a government of some form of radical Islamic federation.

The question then becomes with all these scenarios, ‘What happens to the nuclear arsenal?’

JRH 2/21/09