Iranian Cold War - The Third Way?

By John R. Houk
© March 2006

Confrontation with Iran seems inevitable. The question is, "In what form will the confrontation manifest?"

One form of confrontation is to attempt to isolate Iran economically through sanctions. This concept has met with limited success. A classic example of withstanding economic attrition is Cuba. It is 2006 and American economic sanctions have had little effect on Cuban policy for half a century.

A second form is some form of military assault. This could take place as a surgical assault on specific targets or an invasion. In Iran's case this could prove expensive in money and lives. Two resources America is currently stretched on at the moment.

The third form being bandied along is Cold War II. The use of a combination of sanctions and ideology and secret military ops, all aimed at the Iranian populace. The purpose or goal: To cause a government collapse by stretching Iran's internal resources while simultaneously feeding anti-mullah and pro-American information to the Iranian people. This a Long Haul solution that could take years, however it would a bit more pleasant on democratic constituencies and easier to darken casualties from public view.

Could a long Iranian Cold War be effective in diminishing Islamofascist terrorism? I do not think there is an easy answer to that question.

Here is my thinking. Cold War I was a conflict of ideologies in which the Western enemy was not the people per se, but a Communist government - the Soviet Union - attempting to foment global revolution from the top down.

Islamofascism on the other hand has the hearts and minds of local Mohammedans who actually view the terrorists as international heroes. Certainly there may be Mohammedans unhappy with the status quo in Iran. However to actively polarize this group would be to insult the cult that reigns supreme in the Middle East - Mohammedanism. That is a tough goal to accomplish. A Cold War II could actually popularize Islamofascism among so-called moderates in a propaganda war.

Also in Iran's case there is the element of the messianic that transcends Soviet style secular Communist revolution. Religion is personal, Communism is Statist. Mohammedanism is inculcated into the Middle Eastern culture to the point where civil relationships and religious relationships are mutually inclusive. Ultimately when the moderate local populace chooses between religious relationship and expanded civil rights, the populace will choose the religion every time. The only solution is to dilute the religion in the Middle East as secularists have done in the West to Christianity.

The dilution solution is too "Politically Incorrect" for the West to fathom.

The outcome - no matter the choice of confrontation - will be a confrontation of cultures. The only way for a Cold War II to succeed is to have the gumption to dilute the civil religious hold of Mohammedanism on the people.