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John R. Houk
© January 21, 2008
Here is the skinny for Monday January 21, 2008 from the Rasmussen Reports on the Republican Primary in Florida. Their phone interviews show Romney to be ahead followed by McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee and Thompson.
Giuliani must be rankled because he has put most of his eggs in the Florida basket as Thompson did in the South Carolina basket. The top three are neck and neck so it is a hardly a projection of a winner. Even Huckabee and Thompson are in double digits and close to each other.
This Monday report says my man Thompson may be the spoiler if he chooses to stay in (and I pray he does right through to the Convention). However I have been listening to Fox News off and on today, they report that Thompson is going to make a big announcement tomorrow. In an effort not to influence voters Fox has only been hinting that Thompson may withdraw from the Presidential race (GOD FORBID!). There has been speculation Thompson may endorse either McCain or Romney but not Huckabee.
I can understand not endorsing Huckabee. Huckabee’s surge of popularity among many of the Christian Right (which is hugely misplaced) probably derailed the Thompson campaign more than anything. The calculated risk of entering late was a good gamble; however Huckabee used the opportunity to spread credentials of being a valid social Conservative that so endears the Christian Right. The Christian did not see the probability of Huckabee being fiscally liberal as it pertains to government.
Romney is spouting the social and fiscal Conservative dialogue; however these are words that do not necessarily line up with his gubernatorial record in Massachusetts.
So as it stands, Thompson is STILL THE BEST CONSERVATIVE in the Republican race for the nomination. God help Thompson to stay in until Super Tuesday.
JRH
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Election 2008: Florida Republican Primary
Florida: Romney 25% McCain 20% Giuliani 19%
Rasmussen Reports
Monday, January 21, 2008
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Mitt Romney with a slight lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are close behind in what may develop into a three-man race. It’s Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up seven points over the past week while McCain and Giuliani each inched up a point.
Last week, before the Michigan and South Carolina Primaries, Rasmussen Reports polling found essentially a four-way tie for the lead in Florida. However, Mike Huckabee has slipped to 13% in the current poll. A week ago, he was the top choice for 17%.
One major wild card in the race may be Fred Thompson. The former Senator from Tennessee is considering dropping out of the race after a disappointing showing in South Carolina last Saturday. Twelve percent (12%) of Florida’s Likely Republican Primary Voters still support the actor turned politician.
Even though early voting has already begun, the race remains incredibly fluid. Just 54% of likely voters say they are “certain” of how they will vote. Six percent (6%) have not yet made up their mind and 12% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Giuliani and Huckabee have the most solid support at this time. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Giuliani’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him along with 65% of those who favor Huckabee. For Romney, just 55% are that certain. For McCain, just 48% are that certain. In fact, 22% of McCain’s supporters still say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Among those who are “certain” how they will vote, Romney is the pick for 25%, Giuliani 24%, and McCain 17%.
Florida represents both a major challenge and a major opportunity for McCain. Both result from the fact that Independent voters are not allowed to participate in Florida’s Republican Primary. In McCain’s earlier victories, he has been competitive among Republican voters but won with the votes of Independents. If he is to win the GOP nomination, McCain must sooner or later show that he can win among Republicans. On the other hand, if McCain can win a Republican-only Primary in Florida, he will have a major advantage heading into Super Tuesday a week later.
In Florida, Romney leads among conservative voters, attracting 28% of them. Giuliani is second with 18%.
Among moderates, McCain dominates with 34% support. Giuliani is second with 23%.
Huckabee leads among the state’s Evangelical Christian voters, but his lead is not as substantial as in earlier states. Huckabee currently attracts 25% of the Evangelical vote, Romney 20%, and Thompson 17%.
Giuliani is viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Primary Voters. Romney’s favorables are at 70%, Thompson at 66%, McCain at 64%, Huckabee at 54% and Paul at 28%.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely Primary Voters view Thompson as politically conservative, 45% say the same about Huckabee and 43% view Romney as a conservative. Just 21% see McCain in that way while 14% see Giuliani as a conservative.
Eighty-three percent (83%) see Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal and 76% say the same about McCain. Fifty percent (50%) see Huckabee as moderate or liberal and 49% hold that view of Romney.
Last week’s survey found that Giuliani and McCain were seen as the most electable Republican candidates.
McCain and Romney lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Before the caucuses and primaries began, Huckabee led the Florida Primary in December. Giuliani held the lead in November. A victory in Florida is crucial for Giuliani who has chosen to stay out of earlier contests in Election 2008. The high risk strategy calls for Giuliani to accept defeats in the early states, win Florida, and translate that momentum into victory on Super Tuesday, February 5.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a 46.5% chance to win in Florida while Giuliani is seen as having a 20.0% chance of winning. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Prospects for other candidates and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Prospects for South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page.
Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.
_________________________
THOMPSON! Surprise the Media in Your Tuesday Announcement
John R. Houk
© January 21, 2008
________________________
Election 2008: Florida Republican Primary
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This telephone survey of 754 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on January 20, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
©2008 Rasmussen Reports Inc.
Florida: Romney 25% McCain 20% Giuliani 19%
Rasmussen Reports
Monday, January 21, 2008
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Mitt Romney with a slight lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are close behind in what may develop into a three-man race. It’s Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up seven points over the past week while McCain and Giuliani each inched up a point.
Last week, before the Michigan and South Carolina Primaries, Rasmussen Reports polling found essentially a four-way tie for the lead in Florida. However, Mike Huckabee has slipped to 13% in the current poll. A week ago, he was the top choice for 17%.
One major wild card in the race may be Fred Thompson. The former Senator from Tennessee is considering dropping out of the race after a disappointing showing in South Carolina last Saturday. Twelve percent (12%) of Florida’s Likely Republican Primary Voters still support the actor turned politician.
Even though early voting has already begun, the race remains incredibly fluid. Just 54% of likely voters say they are “certain” of how they will vote. Six percent (6%) have not yet made up their mind and 12% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Giuliani and Huckabee have the most solid support at this time. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Giuliani’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him along with 65% of those who favor Huckabee. For Romney, just 55% are that certain. For McCain, just 48% are that certain. In fact, 22% of McCain’s supporters still say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Among those who are “certain” how they will vote, Romney is the pick for 25%, Giuliani 24%, and McCain 17%.
Florida represents both a major challenge and a major opportunity for McCain. Both result from the fact that Independent voters are not allowed to participate in Florida’s Republican Primary. In McCain’s earlier victories, he has been competitive among Republican voters but won with the votes of Independents. If he is to win the GOP nomination, McCain must sooner or later show that he can win among Republicans. On the other hand, if McCain can win a Republican-only Primary in Florida, he will have a major advantage heading into Super Tuesday a week later.
In Florida, Romney leads among conservative voters, attracting 28% of them. Giuliani is second with 18%.
Among moderates, McCain dominates with 34% support. Giuliani is second with 23%.
Huckabee leads among the state’s Evangelical Christian voters, but his lead is not as substantial as in earlier states. Huckabee currently attracts 25% of the Evangelical vote, Romney 20%, and Thompson 17%.
Giuliani is viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Primary Voters. Romney’s favorables are at 70%, Thompson at 66%, McCain at 64%, Huckabee at 54% and Paul at 28%.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely Primary Voters view Thompson as politically conservative, 45% say the same about Huckabee and 43% view Romney as a conservative. Just 21% see McCain in that way while 14% see Giuliani as a conservative.
Eighty-three percent (83%) see Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal and 76% say the same about McCain. Fifty percent (50%) see Huckabee as moderate or liberal and 49% hold that view of Romney.
Last week’s survey found that Giuliani and McCain were seen as the most electable Republican candidates.
McCain and Romney lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Before the caucuses and primaries began, Huckabee led the Florida Primary in December. Giuliani held the lead in November. A victory in Florida is crucial for Giuliani who has chosen to stay out of earlier contests in Election 2008. The high risk strategy calls for Giuliani to accept defeats in the early states, win Florida, and translate that momentum into victory on Super Tuesday, February 5.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a 46.5% chance to win in Florida while Giuliani is seen as having a 20.0% chance of winning. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Prospects for other candidates and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Prospects for South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page.
Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.
_________________________
THOMPSON! Surprise the Media in Your Tuesday Announcement
John R. Houk
© January 21, 2008
________________________
Election 2008: Florida Republican Primary
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This telephone survey of 754 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on January 20, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
©2008 Rasmussen Reports Inc.
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