Possible Outcomes of Pakistani Crisis Might Even Change a Democrat's Mind
Pervez Musharraf has imposed martial law in Pakistan. The official reason is because radical murdering Islamist terrorists are trying to bring their Theo-Political ideology as the rule of law and depose Musharraf.
I am certain there is an element of truth to the official reason; however I am betting the actual reason is elements outside of the military within the regime are trying to depose Musharraf, specifically Pakistan’s version of the Supreme Court.
Pakistan’s Supreme Court was about to rule on the legality of Musharraf’s election as President while retaining his spot as the head of the Pakistani military. The talk was the Court ruling was not going to happen to Musharraf’s benefit.
Although I am certain Musharraf would have used the military to brush off such a judicial ruling it would have angered the people in such a way that rioting might lead to sympathy to the radical Islamists followed by a Khomeini style people’s revolution.
Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and eight other judges refused to support Musharraf’s “emergency order.” Musharraf’s response was to depose the Chief Justice and rename another to replace him – Abdul Hameed Dogar.
Then there is the position of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto who returned to Pakistan recently under a deal with Musharraf to bring back democracy to Pakistan while siding with her families old military enemies to draw the people away from radical Islamism. Bhutto is a secular Socialist Muslim.
Bhutto officially complained about the Martial Law order; however I sense she understands her future in Pakistan will only occur with the military’s support combined with a hoped for elective support from the Pakistani people. Bhutto would be executed summarily if the likes of al Qaeda or the Taliban got their hands on her.
What was America’s official reaction? This from BBC News:
In essence the US response was the politically correct response; a deposed Musharraf would be a huge hit on America’s war effort in the Middle East. It would be tough for America to lose an ally in Pakistan which could happen if Musharraf was deposed. There is the possibility that the Pakistan military might simply replace Musharraf with another top dog general and continue the policy of Musharraf under a different military political Administration.
Again though, a deposed Musharraf would pour prestige and allegiance of the Pakistani people to the radical Islamists. This could lead to a similar scenario of a Khomeini style revolution in Pakistan that the military could not stop without outright butchery and genocide.
What is the worst that could happen? O not much, a nuclear armed Wahhabi-Sunni-Taliban-al-Qaeda Islamist nation that hates America. The only plus would be incredible Sunni power probably would end the friendship with Shi’ite Iran who has no doubt been aiding the Waziristan Sunni radicals. I also suspect the old socialists in India will change their minds in rejecting America’s proffered hand of friendship and join in with American against radical Islamists in Pakistan and Iran.
Muslim Pakistan and Hindi India are nearly blood enemies and I suspect India could not stand for Mohammedan nuclear proliferation in the Middle East than America or Europe (although for different reasons).
Thus what Musharraf has done may be reported with media calm of just another dictatorial move in Pakistan; however I suspect the American military and policy strategists are scrambling to develop multiple alternative measures to choose from depending on which way the Pakistani crisis swings.
I am certain there is an element of truth to the official reason; however I am betting the actual reason is elements outside of the military within the regime are trying to depose Musharraf, specifically Pakistan’s version of the Supreme Court.
Pakistan’s Supreme Court was about to rule on the legality of Musharraf’s election as President while retaining his spot as the head of the Pakistani military. The talk was the Court ruling was not going to happen to Musharraf’s benefit.
Although I am certain Musharraf would have used the military to brush off such a judicial ruling it would have angered the people in such a way that rioting might lead to sympathy to the radical Islamists followed by a Khomeini style people’s revolution.
Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and eight other judges refused to support Musharraf’s “emergency order.” Musharraf’s response was to depose the Chief Justice and rename another to replace him – Abdul Hameed Dogar.
Then there is the position of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto who returned to Pakistan recently under a deal with Musharraf to bring back democracy to Pakistan while siding with her families old military enemies to draw the people away from radical Islamism. Bhutto is a secular Socialist Muslim.
Bhutto officially complained about the Martial Law order; however I sense she understands her future in Pakistan will only occur with the military’s support combined with a hoped for elective support from the Pakistani people. Bhutto would be executed summarily if the likes of al Qaeda or the Taliban got their hands on her.
What was America’s official reaction? This from BBC News:
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the declaration of emergency rule was "highly regrettable" and called upon Pakistan to have free and fair elections.
In essence the US response was the politically correct response; a deposed Musharraf would be a huge hit on America’s war effort in the Middle East. It would be tough for America to lose an ally in Pakistan which could happen if Musharraf was deposed. There is the possibility that the Pakistan military might simply replace Musharraf with another top dog general and continue the policy of Musharraf under a different military political Administration.
Again though, a deposed Musharraf would pour prestige and allegiance of the Pakistani people to the radical Islamists. This could lead to a similar scenario of a Khomeini style revolution in Pakistan that the military could not stop without outright butchery and genocide.
What is the worst that could happen? O not much, a nuclear armed Wahhabi-Sunni-Taliban-al-Qaeda Islamist nation that hates America. The only plus would be incredible Sunni power probably would end the friendship with Shi’ite Iran who has no doubt been aiding the Waziristan Sunni radicals. I also suspect the old socialists in India will change their minds in rejecting America’s proffered hand of friendship and join in with American against radical Islamists in Pakistan and Iran.
Muslim Pakistan and Hindi India are nearly blood enemies and I suspect India could not stand for Mohammedan nuclear proliferation in the Middle East than America or Europe (although for different reasons).
Thus what Musharraf has done may be reported with media calm of just another dictatorial move in Pakistan; however I suspect the American military and policy strategists are scrambling to develop multiple alternative measures to choose from depending on which way the Pakistani crisis swings.
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