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Now here is something to think about. It is a “what if.” What if China and Japan were to reconcile their past and become East Asian partners pursuing mutual national interests? This would greatly expose a weakness in American hegemony. Such a China/Japan alliance might be huge economically and militarily.
Here is another “what if.” What if China, Japan and America formed some kind of triumvirate with Japan as the linkage between the three? That would be a huge innovation that would mess up a lot of geopolitical thinking globally. Russia and the EU would definitely feel the political pressure.
Oh well just thinking out loud. Indeed though China and Japan are reaching out to find a way to patch up mutual loathing of each other. The implications of the success of such a venture could hold future geopolitical global realignment.
The West seems to have set the stage about how global conflicts find a foundation. The primary element for a foundation to global conflict is to construct an alliance of reliable nations. These reliable nations may have many differing cultural formations yet the glue that commits the alliance is a co-mutual National Interest.
If one connects the dots, an emerging such alliance is Russia, China and Iran. All three of these nations have very divergent cultures that have materialized to this present date in time. At first glance the appearance is that these three nations would be enemies rather than friends. There even has been recent history that all three of these nations have had recent conflict with one another.
There is one global element that unites the trio into a commonality. It is the United States of America. Russia, China and Iran want to be at the very least a regional hegemon in their traditional spheres of influence. The USA’s global hegemonic reach is a stumbling block for each of the trio’s regional National Interest.
Russia since Czarist days has sought an expansionism that produces a comfort zone from invasion. China has been East Asia’s anchor of power on a continuous basis maybe longer than any other group of people (with one sort of dynasty or another to the present day Communist regime). The trio has gravitated to each other because of mutual interests. Iran has oil and China needs oil and Russia ironically needs refined oil. I say “ironically” about Russia because they have loads of there own oil but apparently have difficulty in accessing it.
Russian and China both have technology and military know how. Iran wishes to access that know how.
Thus mutual National Interests and mutual needs may (if not already) cement a new Axis to confront American National Interests.
The variable to the new Axis are a couple of other Asian big dogs: economic giant Japan and emerging economic giant (and nuclear power) India. India and Japan are extreme rivals to China. The world’s largest democracy – India – has been in the old Soviet Communist orbit in the past; however India has made significant strides to ally with America. Japan ironically has been America’s best friend in Asia since the end of WWII. Japan has never been on friendly terms with Czarist Russia or Communist USSR.
A couple of minor variables in East Asia and the Pacific that would gravitate toward America are Australia, Philippines, South Korea and the controversial Taiwan.
Notice I have excluded Europe. I suspect Western Europe would only join America if they sensed an extreme threat from the Axis Trio. Although much of Eastern Europe would wish to be pro-American, they are too close to Russian hegemonic desires to be an effective aid in any thing except maybe a guerrilla war. Much of Canada is in the European frame of mind politically; however I suspect Canadian political polarization would emerge on the side of America in a pinch. However I think Canada might be extremely hesitant to commit to its old friend America without some kind of tragedy on their soil such as the Mohammedan conspiracy that was broken up a short time ago. That conspiracy was aimed at the Canadian Parliament and Prime Minister.
So here I present the global stage for what I believe the inevitable future. Russia, China and Iran will undoubtedly have their minor variables to add to their interests. There is psycho North Korea. There is the Shi’ites of Iraq. I suspect al Qaeda will join Shi’ite Iran even though al Qaeda are Wahhabi Sunni psycho Mohammedans. There is Syria. There is Hezbollah of Lebanon. I suspect al Qaeda and Hamas terrorism will influence other Mohammedan nations to join the Trio Axis. It is at this moment in which Western Europe will decide if the Axis or American hegemony will best support their regional interests. That decision will be based on oil. Will the EU fight with America to gain oil from a capitalistic market or will the EU join the Axis with guarantees of oil?
In the midst of this global conflict, I suspect a holocaust of Jews in Israel will occur. The little sliver of land known as Israel may be out of reach of American protection if the conflict goes global. This is much like the Philippines was out of reach of American protection at the outset of WWII with Japan. Hopefully there will be a 21st century MacArthur that will “return” to liberate Israel before too many Jews are massacred. (Theologically speaking that MacArthur might be Jesus Christ himself.)
Again global conflict is inevitable. Ideology and regional self-interest are simply to compelling for diplomatic patience to be effective. Russia, China and Iran are already having tentacles into each other; it would be difficult to do the Siamese surgery to untangle the triplets.
Read this from Dan Blumenthal of AEI:
The United States and Japan are converging in their approaches to China. Multidimensional engagement will not end, but the two have joined to balance China’s military weight. This common China policy, however, may be insufficient. Should Beijing become more aggressive, America and Japan will need to become a strong counterweight to China. Should the Chinese government’s legitimacy begin to weaken, America and Japan need to be prepared for other security threats. To avoid either of these troubling outcomes, American and Japanese policies on China should focus more intently on the greatest strategic prize: a democratic China.
Fortunately, Washington and Tokyo have articulated a regional vision in the Bush-Koizumi joint statement that has the best hope of pushing China in the right direction. The statement says the two countries will promote individual freedoms; increase transparency and confidence in political, economic, and military fields; and protect human rights.[10]
A more ambitious vision--that of Shinzo Abe--would commit Tokyo, Washington, Canberra, and Delhi to building a political and security institution whose membership criteria are based on those values. Beijing would complain that such an arrangement is a containment vehicle, but it certainly need not be so--China might reform itself to meet the criteria. Reform-minded Chinese could equate democratization with patriotism, as membership in such an institution would confer countless benefits upon China. Moreover, there are many different forums in Asia through which countries can currently engage China. If, however, China proceeds down the troubling path of conflict, Japan, the United States, and other regional democracies will be better able to respond through a democratic security community. (
Dan Blumenthal)
When political theorists begin to write like this you know there is talk among policy shakers and makers in government.
When President Bush signs the legislation to freely trade in nuclear reactors and technology with India, it will be the beginning of building an Asian and Pacific containment group aimed at China.
The next move will be the re-arming of Japan.
See also: America is betting on a New Ally in India.
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